In 2014, China will continue its two-decade trajectory in R&D investment, consistent with the current Five-Year Plan (FYP 2011 to 2015). According to our Forecast, China’s research intensity will increase to 1.95% of GDP in 2014. China’s FYP is aimed at achieving 2.2% of GDP by 2015. This rate of growth is expected to continue through the end of the decade as China strives to transition from a manufacturing economy to being “innovation-driven” by 2020. At current rates of R&D investment and economic growth, China could surpass the U.S. in total R&D spending by about 2022.
Global R&D spending is forecast to grow by 3.7%, or $53.7 billion in 2013 to $1.496 trillion, according to research by analysts at Battelle, Columbus, Ohio, and R&D Magazine. The largest share of this increase, $22.9 billion, is expected to come from China, which continues its decade-long annual double digit increases in R&D investments.